Caitlin Clark's record-setting rookie year is over. How much better can she get?
Caitlin Clark’s first professional season is over and already, people are imagining what she'll do in her second.
Clark had a sensational, record-setting year in the WNBA, and is the heavy favorite to win Rookie of the Year.
After helping lead Indiana to its first playoff appearance since 2016, Clark and the Fever ran into a veteran, experienced Connecticut Sun team. The Sun swept the Fever on Wednesday, winning Game 2, 87-81. Now Clark will pack her bags and head back to Indiana for what might be her longest break from organized basketball. But that doesn't mean Clark won't be working. What's scary for her opposition is, she's probably going to get better.
“I feel like basketball has really consumed my life for a year,” Clark said after Wednesday’s loss, a nod to the fact that last October, the Iowa women were in the Crossover at Kinnick, a basketball game played in the football stadium to meet the demand to watch Clark.
“It’ll definitely be a little weird for me over the course of the first couple weeks (off),” she said. “And then I’m sure I’ll get bored and pick up a basketball again.”
So how much better can she get? Let's break it down in terms of the three stats that always generate the most conversation around Clark: scoring, passing and turnovers.
Because New York guard Sabrina Ionescu, now in her fifth season, is the best comparison in terms of position, size and skill, it makes sense to reference Ionescu’s stats, too, particularly when it comes to shooting.
Another thing to remember is that as the WNBA continues to grow — teams will play a record 44 regular-season games in 2025 — Clark will have more opportunities to smash various records.
MORE:How many points did Caitlin Clark score in her rookie WNBA season? See her stats
Caitlin Clark will probably shoot better in 2025
Celebrated for her logo 3s and ability to pull up as soon as she crosses half court, Clark had a pretty good shooting season in 2024. Connecting on 41.7% of her field goal attempts, Clark finished as the 20th best shooter among WNBA guards this season.
While Clark’s field goal percentage seesawed at Iowa — going from 47.2% as a freshman to 45.2%, then up to 47.3% and finally 45.5% as a senior — it’s almost a sure bet that it will improve in her second professional season, particularly from 3, where she shot 34.4% this season. Clark’s senior year at Iowa, she shot 37.8% from long distance.
By comparison, Ionescu’s field goal percentage increased steadily over her first few seasons in the league, jumping from 37.9% her first full year, in 2021, to 42.3% in 2023. (She shot 39.4% in 38 regular-season games this year.) After shooting in the low 30s her first two years, Ionescu’s 3-point percentage jumped to 44.8% in 2023. (Ionescu played just three games in 2020 due to a season-ending ankle injury.)
While Clark will surely become an even better, and more efficient, scorer at the pro level, defenders will better learn how to guard her, too.
“When you get into this league, it’s like having all the valedictorians at one school,” said Seattle guard Skylar Diggins-Smith, one of the best perimeter defenders in the WNBA. “Everyone is in this league for a reason and everyone can hurt you. (With scorers) you’ve gotta make them take tough shots, make them uncomfortable. You’re always trying to take away their first option.”
Really, she said with a laugh, “you’re also hoping that they just miss.”
For guards in particular, Diggins-Smith emphasized, the first few seasons in the WNBA involve “a lot of on-the-job training, because you don’t get a lot of training camp or practice. You really just have to go through it, and then the game slows down eventually.”
Bottom line: Expect these numbers to improve for Clark, particularly from 3. The stat to really keep an eye on is how many shots per game she takes. She ranked 11th in that category this season (among all 144 players) but could creep up, especially as Indiana continues to play at a faster pace.
Caitlin Clark's turnovers will go down
Clark led the league in turnovers as a rookie (5.6 per game) but really, what did you expect? The reality of having the ball in your hands more than anyone means you’re probably going to lose it a lot more than anyone, too.
Comparison here is tough. Clark is the definition of a high risk, high reward player and when she's in her groove, she plays at a breakneck pace. Many of her turnovers come from risks she takes.
Meanwhile the other best passers in the league — Ionescu, Connecticut's Alyssa Thomas, New York's Courtney Vandersloot — don't have to shoot as much because they have more talent around them. This helps them cut down on turnovers.
But, as all those veteran passers can attest from personal experience, the more Clark plays with her teammates and develops chemistry and timing with them, the fewer turnovers she’ll have. She’ll also get a better feel for which defenders she can pass through and which she can’t.
Passing is what will separate Caitlin Clark
Diehard fans and casual WNBA viewers might love Clark for her shooting, but true basketball junkies know the separator when it comes to Clark is her passing.
“You can’t guard somebody’s vision and you can’t guard somebody’s unselfishness,” said Las Vegas coach Becky Hammon, who played 16 years in the league. “There are certain things that are within people, and she has an innate way of passing the ball. Her passing is her best part of her game. Her shooting, people want to talk all about the logo 3s or whatever but — that girl will slice and dice your defense.”
Put another way: Clark’s vision of the other nine players on the floor is a unique gift. It’s hard to anticipate the gaps she’ll see and the passes she can thread through those gaps.
Clark also mirrors one of the GOATs of women's basketball when it comes to being a multi-tool player. Diana Taurasi, the WNBA's all-time leading scorer, has always been known as a tough assignment because of her ability to do everything. That's the way her teammates tell it, at least.
"Playing against DT was a pain in the (butt)," said current Mercury guard and Taurasi teammate Natasha Cloud, who spent eight seasons with the Washington Mystics. "I would leave games with bruises all over my arm. She's one of the hardest people to guard because she just has so many weapons. And what makes her super dangerous is she can pass the (crap) out of the ball, too."
According to Diggins-Smith, there’s nothing like guarding a terrific passer to remind you of the importance of team defense.
“With great point guards who can see, you try to trap their vision, show them difference schemes,” said Diggins-Smith, explaining that everyone getting hands in passing lanes is crucial. “We don’t talk about that as a one-on-one matchup, that’s got to be one-on-five. It takes discipline, too.”
Hammon agreed.
“You’ve gotta mix up looks on people who dissect the game like that,” she said. “You gotta make them uncomfortable … once you learn how to weaponize passing it makes you basically impossible to guard.”
That’s good news for Clark and the Fever, and sobering news for everyone tasked with guarding her.
Contributing: Nancy Armour
Email Lindsay Schnell at [email protected] and follow her on social media @Lindsay_Schnell